On April 2, 2025 President Trump enacted a sweeping tariff hike, catapulting the U.S. average effective tariff rate to around 23%—a tenfold increase from the previous year. The move rattled markets and injected deep uncertainty into global trade. For executives in the industrial sectors, this shift demands more than a reactive shrug. It calls for a strategic rethink of risk, supply chains, and long-term positioning.

Despite the temporary 90-day pause on retaliatory tariffs for most countries, the signal is clear: we’ve entered a new era of unpredictable trade policy—what economists from Boston Consulting Group call a regime of “deliberate uncertainty.”

This isn’t a bilateral dispute—it’s a one-versus-all trade war. The U.S. has applied tariffs broadly, without targeting specific countries or industries. In contrast, other nations are only engaging the U.S. The asymmetry is important: while the U.S. risks global blowback, its trade partners face disruption only in their U.S. business. This weakens the U.S.’s negotiating position and complicates outcomes for global companies trying to plan.

First-Order Effects: Supply and Demand Shocks

1. Supply shocks – mostly self-inflicted for the U.S.

Tariffs act as a tax on imports, and those costs pass through to businesses and consumers. For U.S. manufacturers, this means costlier inputs and squeezed margins. The expected result: higher inflation, reduced real incomes, slower consumption, and weaker GDP growth—projected to drop by 1.4% in 2025.

2. Retaliatory pain – limited but real for others

If other nations impose counter-tariffs, they too face inflation and slower growth, though the effect is smaller—around 0.1 % to 0.3 % GDP impact—because they’re targeting only U.S. goods.

3. Demand shocks – trade partners hit harder

Higher U.S. tariffs make it harder for foreign producers to sell into the U.S. market. The impact depends on how sensitive demand is to price changes. For most countries, the hit could range from -0.2 % to -0.6 % of GDP. But for highly exposed economies like Vietnam, losses may top 6 %.

4. U.S. exports face headwinds

As other countries respond, American exports decline. Though the U.S. is less reliant on exports than, say, Germany or China, the widespread nature of retaliation could shrink GDP by another 0.5 %.

Trump’s tariff policy seeks to reshore production and revive U.S. manufacturing. But tariffs are a blunt instrument. Unlike targeted incentives like the CHIPS Act, which spurred strategic investments in semiconductors, tariffs affect all goods, regardless of their economic or strategic value.

The risk? Misallocating resources to low-productivity sectors like furniture or apparel, which may cannibalize labor and capital from more advanced industries. With unemployment already low, the economy doesn’t have surplus workers to absorb new, labor-intensive production. This could drag down average productivity and hinder long-term growth—a net loss for the economy.

Trade policy isn’t just a Washington game anymore, it’s a frontline issue for global business. Managing macro risk, once a niche skill, is fast becoming essential. Industrial leaders who invest now in analytical capacity, scenario planning, and supply chain intelligence will not only endure the current turbulence—they’ll gain a competitive edge for whatever comes next.

Five Hidden Undercurrents Leaders Can’t Ignore

Beyond the immediate economic drag, industrial leaders should watch for five secondary effects—less predictable, but equally important.

• Confidence erosion

Consumers and businesses lose faith. Even if confidence metrics don’t always predict outcomes (as seen in recent years), they remain a bellwether worth monitoring.

• Wealth effects

Markets have already taken a hit. Lower equity valuations translate to lower consumer spending and tighter capital for firms.

• Policy missteps

The Federal Reserve is stuck between battling inflation and supporting growth. Tariffs complicate their dual mandate and raise the odds of miscalculation.

• Competitiveness loss

Around 50% of U.S. imports are intermediate goods—raw materials, tools, components. Tariffs increase production costs and erode the competitive edge, especially in capital-intensive industries.

• Compounding shocks

When an economy is weakened, it becomes more vulnerable. A financial mishap, cyberattack, geopolitical event, or even natural disaster could hit harder and last longer under these conditions.

As a young engineer at Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) in Jackson, TN, I was eager to make an impact. One of my earliest challenges was tackling lubrication Preventative Maintenance (PM) processes—a critical yet often overlooked aspect of plant operations. It didn’t take long to realize just how overwhelming this task was for maintenance teams and how much room there was for improvement. This experience planted the seed for what would eventually become GreaseTech.

The Problem: Complexity and Chaos in Lubrication PMs

In the corrugating industry, production often takes priority over everything else, and PM downtime is consistently squeezed. This creates significant challenges for maintenance teams, especially when it comes to lubrication. As I observed technicians attempting to grease hundreds of bearings during limited windows of time,

I saw how difficult it was for them to:

• Track every bearing and ensure none were missed.
• Identify the correct lubricant for each specific point.
• Apply the precise amount needed, avoiding under-greasing or over-greasing.

The situation wasn’t any easier for maintenance managers. They had no visibility into what work had been completed, what was skipped, or whether the lubrication was done correctly. Improper lubrication—a key contributor to nearly 70% of mechanical failures—was wreaking havoc on operations.

It was clear to me that something had to change.

The Spark of Innovation

Years later, while pursuing my Master’s in Business, Entrepreneurship, and Technology at the University of Waterloo, this problem kept nagging at me. I realized that the tools available to maintenance teams were outdated and inadequate, and I was determined to find a better way.

That’s when I met Nathan Wong, a brilliant computer science student at the University of Waterloo. Nathan had been coding since the age of 11, and his technical expertise was the perfect complement to my industry knowledge. We quickly realized we shared a passion for solving real-world problems and started brainstorming how technology could transform lubrication maintenance. Together, we began developing what would become GreaseTech.

The GreaseTech Solution

GreaseTech combines cutting-edge hardware and intuitive software to address the challenges I saw firsthand in the corrugating industry. Here’s how it works:

1. Automated Tracking: Every lubrication point in the plant is digitally mapped and tagged. Technicians use a smart grease gun equipped with sensors to track which points have been serviced, ensuring nothing is overlooked.

2. Lubricant Matching: GreaseTech’s system stores detailed specifications for every bearing, including the exact type and amount of lubricant required. This eliminates the guesswork and reduces mismatches that lead to equipment failures.

3. Real-Time Visibility: Maintenance managers can access a centralized dashboard to monitor progress, identify skipped tasks, and ensure compliance with schedules—all in real time.

4. Data-Driven Maintenance: Digital records allow plants to analyze lubrication trends, address recurring issues, and optimize their PM schedules.

Why It Matters for Corrugating Plants

Corrugating plants operate in high-pressure environments where unplanned downtime directly impacts production and profitability. Lubrication PMs, while essential, often take a backseat to immediate production needs.

GreaseTech bridges this gap by empowering maintenance teams with tools that ensure efficiency and accuracy. Bearings are no longer over-greased or under-greased, and managers gain the insights they need to optimize their operations. The result?

Reduced downtime, fewer equipment failures, and greater overall reliability.

Building a Vision for the Future

The journey from identifying a problem at PCA to building a solution at Waterloo has been one of collaboration and innovation. Nathan and I poured countless hours into understanding the needs of maintenance teams and designing a system that truly addresses their pain points. Today, GreaseTech is helping corrugating plants across North America improve reliability and simplify lubrication processes.

At GreaseTech, we believe that innovation starts on the plant floor. My experience at PCA and Nathan’s technical expertise have allowed us to create a solution that’s not only practical but transformative. Together, we’re committed to making the lives of maintenance technicians, planners, and managers easier—one bearing at a time.

To learn more about GreaseTech and how it can improve your plant’s lubrication PMs, visit our website or contact us directly.

Let’s redefine reliability, together.

Website and demo video: https://www.greasetech.ca/product

Jesh Ramesh
The Co-Founder and CEO of GreaseTech

Where he combines his deep industry experience with a passion for innovation to improve plant maintenance processes.